Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Is Everyone Betting Against This In EUR/USD?

Agree35
Agree30
It's not a big surprise for us to see major banks crowded in the short EUR/USD trade over and over but what is really interesting this time is how they seem to bet against the same level where their stops are placed around.
That is the 1.3418 June-19 high which Bank of of America Merrill Lynch sees as a 'line in the sand' where its break would force BofA to abandon its bearish view and turn neutral.
In line with this view, BofA maintains a technical tactical short EUR/USD position from 1.3355, with a stop at 1.3420, and a target at 1.2821.
Same for Commerzbank who thinks that as EUR/USD has stalled below the June high at 1.3418, there is little to suggest that the market will maintain a break beyond here,
In line with this view, CB maintains a short EUR/USD from 1.3383 with a stop at 1.3425 and a target at 1.3190.
And same also for Credit Suisse who maintains its short EUR/USD position from 1.3300, with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025.
Even Barclays Capital who is running a macro EUR/USD short trade is also betting against this level with a stop at 1.3430, and a target at 1.28.
Putting all together, if the stops around this level get triggered, a quick move to 1.35 will be there before all is said and done. 
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