Sunday, September 8, 2013

The Lazy Man’s Guide to Forex Trading; Let the Market Do the ‘Work’

By Nial Fuller   Posted in Forex Trading Education Articles

When we think of a “lazy person” we typically imagine someone laying around at home watching TV on the sofa with a bag of potato chips in one hand and a cheap beer in the other. One thing that we almost never associate with a lazy person is success or wealth; in fact we usually imagine them as being poor, dirty and disorganized. However, today I am going to challenge these beliefs because I feel that in our modern society there’s an over-emphasis on doing “more” and being some workaholic control freak who simply lives for their job and little else.
The word “lazy” is often associated with negativity in most social circles, but depending on what you’re being lazy about, it can actually be a good thing. Saying someone is a “lazy person” is usually a gross generalization. You could be an athlete or a super fitness freak, but you might be lazy when it comes to investing, money and business; many people are lazy in some areas of life and the exact opposite in others. There’s nothing wrong with this, and it’s actually quite normal to be lazy at some things in your life. When it comes to trading or investing, it could even be said that being “lazy” or relaxed can actually increase your chances of success.
The lazy trader concept I am using for today’s lesson is simply a metaphor for trading in a manner that is relaxed and unemotional, but the theory behind it makes sense. Remember, I have been doing this for over 10 years and I have witnessed thousands of traders and the different ways they trade; I know what attributes make good traders and being lazy is probably in the top 5 essential attributes in my opinion. Relaxed, stress-free personalities tend to make more money in trading and investing, whereas the serious over-thinkers and obsessively dedicated personalities tend to lose!!!

Lazy traders aren’t glued to their charts all the time

The best traders I know don’t bother analyzing the market or watching their charts all the time. They know they can’t change where the market is headed, so they just set orders/alerts when certain prices are reached or they look at the market in the morning and in the evening briefly. Successful traders take a relaxed and no-stress approach.
The most profitable traders and investors don’t addictively watch their positions all night while they should be sleeping. They make a decision and let the market determine the outcome without interruption or interference. Some might call this “lazy”, I call it “smart” because it works and it’s the foundation of the set and forget mentality that I believe in.
To be a good trader, we almost have to do the opposite of everything that feels “right”. It feels “right” to sit there and watch the markets and watch your trades tick away. But this really accomplishes nothing except making you more likely to do something stupid like enter another position, close your position before it really gets moving, etc. It seems like you need to sit there and “analyze” the market for a long time, and especially after you enter a trade, but you don’t need to do this, actually you really need to do the opposite. Just leave your computer, be “lazy” about your trades and forget about them for a while, this way you really give your trading edge a fair shot to play out.

Lazy traders have bigger winners

How many times have you entered a valid trade setup from the daily chart time frame and then began watching the 4 hour or 1 hour chart after your trade was live? I’ll bet you’ve done this a lot, and I’ll bet it’s led to more than a few occasions where you exited that perfectly good daily chart setup only because you saw the market moving against you on the intra-day charts.
Lazy traders don’t sit there and watch their trades after they are live, thus they are not looking at every up and down move during the intraday session, and thus they eliminate most of the temptation to interfere with their trades. This leads to bigger winners and a higher overall risk reward return over the long run. The reason is simply because they are not being influenced and hypnotized by the short-term fluctuations in price that tend to cause traders to make emotional trading errors. The lazy trader is down at the beach having a  beer or spending time with his family, while the obsessed trader is crouched over his computer panicking and stressing over his open positions…which one do you think is more likely to make a stupid emotional trading mistake?

The Lazy trader goes to sleep whilst the obsessed trader is sleep deprived

Lazy traders are relaxed and calm; they get a good night’s sleep and let the market do its thing. When they wake up in the morning they turn on the computer and look at the overnight price action for a few minutes and then carry on with their lives.
The obsessed coffee-addicted trading junkie is sleep deprived because he has been up watching the market until 4a.m. crouched over his trading terminal…he is ultimately creating his own failure by taking trading way too seriously and over thinking every single decision. The longer you sit there and “think” about the markets and your trades, the more likely you are to make a stupid / emotional trading mistake.

Lazy traders develop confidence in their trading ability

brainOne of the things that I see from the emails I get every day is that there are basically two types of traders; those traders who are happy trading around their current job and schedule and those who look at trading as their only option for income and put all their eggs in the trading basket right from the start. What this means is that one trader is starting from a point of no pressure or emotion and another trader is already putting pressure and emotion into the mix before they even make their first trade.
Putting pressure on yourself to make a lot of money from your trading right out of the gate is going to flood your mind and body with emotion and adrenaline which is naturally going to cause you to do stupid things like over-trading and over-leveraging your account. Whereas, if you take a lazy trader approach and just check the market before and after work each day, you will slowly but surely gain confidence and also have better longer-term results since you will have largely eliminated emotion from the mix.
The “true” market picture can easily be seen after analyzing the price action on the charts for just a few minutes at the close of each trading session. (end of day chart analysis).  However, when obsessed traders sit there and continue to analyze the market, they inherently make up all kinds of things that “could” happen and they manifest patterns and trade setups that are nothing more than low-probability random price movements. Thus, trading in this obsessive manner works to tear down your confidence as a trader and just makes you frazzled and frustrated in the end. The lazy trader develops a better “gut feel” for the market because he is just looking at what’s there and then moving on, rather than sitting there manifesting different combinations of things that could happen.

Lazy traders develop positive trading habits

The lazy trader flicks open a EURUSD chart, looks for something obvious to trade and either trades or passes on the opportunity. He is not worried about news events or what the media is saying; he is not over-thinking it and he does not care if he enters a trade or not. Trading in this manner develops positive trading habits because you are reinforcing a minimalist trading approach.
I am a minimalist myself and I keep things simple and clean when it comes to trading. I can’t stand being stressed or worried about what the market is doing, I can’t stand the thought of analyzing the market for hours on end, or anything for that matter. I don’t listen to financial news and I don’t over-think what I am doing in the market or in life. I would much rather be relaxing reading a book/magazine or watching a movie or entertaining my 3 year old son.
In fact, I would much prefer to do ANYTHING else but stress out about a trade or a trading decision.
It is often the case that the more serious and obsessed traders typically develop addictive and self-destructive personalities, or they already have these personalities when they start trading and they aren’t willing to change. They actually believe that they can influence or change what the market is going to do by focusing almost their whole life on the markets; however this couldn’t be further from the truth!

The key to lazy trading

Now that we’ve discussed a lot about why being a “lazy trader” can improve your trading, let’s talk about how to actually become a lazy trader…
Simply put, you have to genuinely not care about the outcome of any one trade and you have to eliminate the “itch” to be in the market all the time. The easiest way to really not care if you’re in the market or about the outcome of any one trade is to be sure you are totally OK with the money you are risking per trade and the money you have risked in your trading account. You should only be risking an amount that allows you to forget about the trade, when traders start risking more than they are comfortable with losing per trade they put themselves at a very high risk of becoming over-attached to their trades…and this is not the lazy trader approach, this is the obsessive / addictive approach that never works.
You also have to be confident in your trading edge and your ability to trade it. If you don’t really have a trading strategy or you don’t know what you’re doing, you aren’t going to be confident enough to just glance at the market a couple times a day briefly. Instead, you’re going to sit there for hours trying to manifest a signal simply because you aren’t really sure what you’re looking for in the markets. So, be sure you’ve mastered an effective trading edge like price action strategies and that you fully know how to trade it.

Lazy = better trading and a better life

LazytraderMe and thousands of my followers who have made the transition to my “keep it simple and minimalist trading philosophy, know firsthand its immense power. Not only do trading results improve by adopting the “lazy man” trading attitude…our life ultimately becomes less stressed and less cluttered with counter-productive thoughts, and then doors start opening in all areas.
Whether it’s business, trading, relationships or life in general, we often destroy them by trying too hard, doing too much, over-thinking, over-analyzing and simply stressing ourselves or others to death.
Do yourself a favor…start being a lazy trader! If you’re already a lazy trader, good for you! To the people who are not yet converted to “lazy trading tactics”… you need to stop trying so hard, relax and enjoy your life and you may find your trading will actually improve, not to mention your happiness level. It does not have to just be about trading, if you’re in business try removing the stress and stop thinking so much!
Don’t lock yourself in the office or in your trading room and think that the more hours you put in the better the outcome will be, that kind of thinking will destroy you, blow up your trading account and possibly destroy your relationships with others. Your wife/partner will probably notice a huge change in your personality if you make the commitment to be more relaxed.
If anything I have discussed in today’s article has turned on a light bulb in your head…I encourage you to pursue a change in your trading & life. It’s time to undo the damage you have already caused yourself and turn over a new leaf. Some people never wake up to the idea that they should be living a stress-free, relaxed and “lazier” trading life. Hopefully I have “saved” some of you today!
To learn more about my lazy-man’s trading tactics and how to trade stress free and get your life back…do yourself a favor and check out my price action trading course, it’s bound to help.
Good trading, Nial Fuller
 

Why Most Traders Choke When Trading Real Money

By Nial Fuller   Posted in Forex Trading Blog

If you’ve done very well on your demo account and then saw all your trading success crumble to pieces when you started trading live, today’s lesson is for you.
There is growing evidence from scientists that the reason why we tend to choke ‘when it really counts’, is simply because we are thinking too much. As discussed in the ABC news article Why We Choke When All Is On The Line, “Psychologist Sian Beilock of the University of Chicago calls it ‘paralysis by analysis.’ Beilock, author of the book, ‘Choke: What the Secrets of the Brain Reveal About Getting It Right When You Have To’, contends that too much thinking at the wrong time can lead to ‘logjams in the brain’.”
As traders, we are perhaps more susceptible to these “logjams in the brain” than almost any other profession. Having around the clock access to the market on our laptops, smartphones and tablets, along with the massive amount of economic data circulating around the internet each day, makes it extremely easy to fall into the destructive habit of thinking too much and over-analyzing our trades. Thus, as a trader, you have to consciously work against over-analyzing the market or you will very likely end up sabotaging your own trading success as a result of trying to analyze too many variables and from simply thinking too much. Let’s discuss how you can avoid the over-analysis bug and make a successful transition from demo to live account trading…

How your brain is “getting in the way”…

Many traders are simply creating “logjams” in their brains once they switch from demo trading to live trading because they begin to over-analyze everything. The culprit behind this sneaky account-destroyer is primarily the increased awareness that there’s a lot more on the line now because your real money is at risk. This is really not much different than a basketball player being more aware that his free throw shots are much more critical in a close game with 30 seconds left. In the case of both the trader and the basketball player, the individual begins to let their brain areas “responsible for planning, executive function and working memory” override what was previously a near automatic and stress-free process.
You probably can relate to what I’m talking about if you’ve demo traded for a while before switching to a live account. When the pressure is not on the line as with a demo account, you are not thinking too much and you are acting much more on “auto-pilot”, in such a way that allows you to be almost “in the zone” with your trading (trading in harmony). The only thing that is different between demo trading and live trading is that the money is real on a live account, but this fact clearly causes all kinds of new mental process to kick in for most traders, and it is largely these unnecessary mental processes (thinking too much) that causes many traders to self-destruct shortly after starting to trade live.
Here are some very common “traps” that many traders fall into after having success on their demo account upon switching over to a live account:
1) They simply begin watching the charts much more than they were on demo. This causes them to over-trade and deviate from the successful trading behavior they exhibited on their demo account.
2) Where they had no problems sticking to their trading strategy on demo, many traders seemingly throw everything out the window once they start trading live. They change from disciplined, skillful chart technicians to over-trading, gambling trade-aholics.
3) Many traders start slapping on tons of confusing and messy indicators onto their charts after trading live. They begin to change their previous simple and successful trading strategy into a “Frankenstein” trading method that would make absolutely no sense to anyone in a “logical” frame of mind.
4) Traders begin trying to “avoid” taking losses once they start trading live. On demo, they didn’t think twice of a losing trade, because there was no money on the line and they were not feeling any “pressure”. Live account trading, especially when you’ve risked too much on a trade, induces traders to begin thinking of all kinds of ways they can “avoid” losses; hedging and not using stop losses are the main ones. Unfortunately, no matter how hard you try, you cannot avoid losing trades, thus, you need to deal with them and accept them, not try to avoid them.
5) Many traders start following economic news reports after they start trading live. On their demo account, they didn’t care at all about NFP, GDP or Retail Sales, now they can’t seem to stop reading about them and about how they “might” affect the markets. This is over-analysis at its finest, or perhaps I should say at its “poorest”.
These are only a handful of the ways that over-thinking and over-analysis manifest themselves when traders switch from demo to live account trading. There are many more. Your job as a trader, is to work to stop yourself from thinking too much about your trading once you start trading live, sounds easy I know, but it’s not. We will discuss how to defeat this trading problem at the end…

You’re not alone

Whilst choking under pressure is certainly a bad thing, you can take some comfort in the fact that it affects almost everyone at some point and does not discriminate across professions. From the article discussed above on Why We Choke When All is on The Line:

“Choking under pressure is even more conspicuous in professional golf. It’s not uncommon to see a pro drive the ball around 300 yards and then miss a one-foot putt. Just two years ago, golfer Jason Dufner blew a four-stroke lead with four holes to play, losing the prestigious PGA Championship in a devastating demonstration of choking under pressure. “
Indeed, it is not just traders who choke when ‘it really counts’; professional sports players deal with this on a regular basis, you may have even dealt with it in a friendly recreational game of golf or basketball with your friends. It clearly is the over-use of the brain that causes professional sports players to choke as well as traders.
Giving a speech in front of an audience is something that gives many people trouble, despite having recited the same speech perfectly many times before getting up in front of an audience. You can find examples of “choking” under pressure and over-thinking in almost everything, from sports, to jobs, even to relationships; people have a tendency to make things much more difficult than they need to be, and especially in trading.
The researchers who ran the studies discussed in the article above came to some interesting but maybe not-so-surprising discoveries about exactly WHY people tend to choke when it counts:
“Researchers generally concentrate on two different explanations for why experts choke. Chicago’s Beilock believes it boils down to two opposing theories: Either the person worries so much even a well-practiced talent can fail, or he or she concentrates so much on the task at hand that the brain overrides the well-trained muscles.”
The above explanation also explains why traders tend to fail when they switch from demo to live accounts. They begin to worry about their trades and over-think them, even if they are a very talented and skilled price action analyst, over-thinking can quickly destroy their trading account. Also, trying too hard causes you to do things you weren’t doing on demo. You probably were not forcing trades on demo, you had a very care-free approach, because nothing was really on the line as with your live account. What you need to do then, is trade your live account with the same relaxed trading mindset that you had on your demo account. Here are some tips to help you do this…

How to stop choking on your live account…

OK, here’s the “meat” of today’s lesson, read the following points closely because if you really understand what I’m saying and ACT on it, YOU will begin to experience less stress and struggle in your trading, and more success:

1) The first and perhaps easiest thing that you can do to stop over-thinking your live account trading, is to back off your dollar risk per trade. In other words, experiment with the dollars per trade that you risk until you get it down to an amount that allows you to focus on other things. If you’re staying up all night glued to your charts because you have a big position on, it’s too big. Your risk per trade is 100% within your control, and if you do not control it, it will get out of hand and stir up all kinds of emotions within you, mostly ones that hurt your chances at making money on a trade. If you do not control your risk, it will “control” you by making you feel like you have to watch the charts and like losing on a trade is a terrible thing you must avoid.
2) As I mentioned in last week’s trading lesson: Snowball Your Trading Success and Stop Losing Money, many professional traders essentially make sure that they are “distracted’ from the market, and this helps them to avoid over-thinking and over-analyzing their trades. If you put a trade on and then go play 18 holes of golf or go do basically anything besides sitting around watching your trade, you are going to end up much further ahead than the trader glued to their trading platform either on his computer or on his smartphone every free second he or she has.
The article I discussed at the beginning of today’s lesson concluded with this: “Chicago’s Beilock says it may help to just figure out a way to distract yourself. Maybe instead of thinking so hard about making that free throw, Shaq should have hummed a little tune.”, in regards to NBA player Shaquille O’Neal consistently missing free throws in close games. This technique works almost the same in trading…if you distract yourself by doing things OTHER than sitting around watching and thinking about your trades, you will be SIGNIFICANTLY  less likely to over-think, over-analyze or over-trade, and thus your chances of making money consistently will increase DRAMATICALLY.
3) Finally, if you really want to give yourself the best shot at avoiding the over-thinking bug that so often infects many traders as they switch from demo to live trading, it will be critical that you trade with a simple and clear trading method. It’s almost impossible to not think too much when you’re staring at 10 different indicators on your charts whilst watching CNBC and reading the latest economic news on Bloomberg. All of that “stuff” is wasteful and unnecessary to successful trading. I want you to take on a minimalist approach to trading, as that is what has worked for me and I know it can work for you if you try it. I have no stress in my trading anymore, even when I have the inevitable losing trade.
This minimalist approach to trading really is the ONLY trading approach in my opinion, because the very nature of risking your hard-earned money in the market is something that makes us humans extremely prone to stress and over-thinking / anxiety. If you do not work to contain these things, they will very quickly destroy your trading account. To learn more about my minimalistic trading approach you might like to check out this lesson – The Minimalistic Guide To Forex Trading and Life.

 

 


 

How The 80/20 Rule Applies To Forex Trading

By Nial Fuller   Posted in Forex Trading Education Articles

  Have you ever noticed that most of the money in the world is held by a relatively small minority of people? Or, how about that most people tend to work in short spurts of intense productivity followed by larger periods where they are less productive? There’s an underlying principle that can be used to describe such occurrences, it’s known as the Pareto principle, or the ’80/20 Rule’.
Some of you might be familiar with the ‘80/20 Rule’, some of you might not be. For those of you who haven’t heard of it before or need a refresher, according to Wikipedia, “it is named after Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who observed in 1906 that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the population; he developed the principle by observing that 20% of the pea pods in his garden contained 80% of the peas”
The 80/20 rule is popular in business studies, sales, economics and many other fields. However, today we are going to discuss how the 80/20 rule applies to trading and the significant positive impact the “80/20 mentality” can have on your trading performance.

How the 80/20 rule applies to your trading

Quick note: These are my personal observations over my 10+ years in the market. The 80/20 rule is not an ‘exact’ science, but it does give you a very effective way to make sense of many aspects of trading and how they all fit together. Also, all ‘80/20’ ratios discussed below should be thought of as “approximate” ratios, meaning they could actually be 75/25 or 90/10, etc.
As Yaro Starak points out in his blog post on the 80/20 Rule and Why It Will Change Your Life:
“By the numbers it means that 80 percent of your outcomes come from 20 percent of your inputs. As Pareto demonstrated with his research this “rule” holds true, in a very rough sense, to an 80/20 ratio, however in many cases the ratio can be a lot higher – 99/1 may be closer to reality.”
I wanted to start off with the above quote by Yaro Starak because in trading, the 80/20 rule is more like 90/10 or sometimes even 99/1 as he says.
How often have you heard “90% of traders fail while only about 10% make consistent money”? Often, I am willing to bet. Whilst the exact ratio of traders who make money vs. those who lose money is obviously almost impossible to pinpoint, it probably is somewhere between 80/20 and 95/5. Have you ever thought to yourself “why is trading apparently so difficult that 80 or 90% of people fail at it?” I’m willing to bet you have, and here is my answer to this pervasive question:
Trading is the ultimate “less is more” profession, but it’s also extremely difficult for most people to come to grips with this fact by accepting the following:
  • 80% of trading should be simple and almost effortless, 20% is more difficult
  • 80% of profits come from 20% of trades
  • 80% of the time the market is not worth trading, 20% it is
  • 80% of the time you should not be in a trade, 20% you can be
  • 80% of trades should be on the daily chart time frame, 20% can be other time frames
  • 80% of trading success is a direct result of trading psychology and money management, 20% is from strategy / system
Let’s delve into each of the above points a little deeper and see how you can start applying them to your trading, and hopefully start improving it, significantly.

80% Simple, 20% Difficult

This one is easy. Most of what we do as traders is sit in front of our computers and look at prices going up or down or sideways. This is not by anyone’s standards “hard” to do. Hell, you can put a 5 year old in front of a chart and ask them which direction they think it will go next and they will probably get it right more often than not. The point is this; determining market direction and finding trades is not hard, people make it hard.
I teach price action as you probably know (honestly, if you don’t know that by now you need to checkout this article right now: price action trading introduction), and it’s not simply some strange coincidence that I teach this particular form of trading, I also personally trade with price action…because it is simple (and effective). The trading strategy you use doesn’t need to involve complex computer algorithms, counting ‘waves’ or interpreting heaps of indicators. In fact, most traders get bogged down with trying every trading method under the sun until they either give up or figure out that they were simply over-complicating what should be a very simple process.
The difficult part of trading is controlling yourself via not over-trading, not risking too much per trade, not jumping back into the market on emotion after a big win or a loss, etc. In short, controlling your own behavior and mindset, as well as properly managing your money are the hardest parts of trading, and traders tend to spend less of their time & focus on these more difficult aspects of trading, probably about 20%, when they should be spending about 80% of their time on them.

80% of profits come from 20% of trades

http://www.dreamstime.com/-image25076017If you have followed my blog for a while, you know that I am strong proponent of “sniper trading” and waiting patiently for high-probability trade setups, rather than the high-frequency trading style that tends to put so many traders ‘out of business’, so to speak.
It’s absolutely true that most of my trading profits come from a small percentage of my trades. I like to keep all my losing trades contained below a certain 1R dollar value that I am comfortable with, and if I see what I consider an “obvious” price action signal with a lot of confluence behind it, I will go in strong and make a nice chunk of change on the trade if it goes in my favor. Because I trade with such patience and precision, the winning trades I have typically double or triple the 1R risk I gave up on any of my losers. This way, even if I lose more trades than I win, I can still make a very nice return at year’s end.

80% of the time I am not trading, 20% of the time I ‘might’ be

I might trade 4 times per month on average, quite simply because I am a very picky trader. I don’t like to risk money on a setup that isn’t ‘screaming’ at me or what I like to say is “damn obvious”. Most traders like to trade a higher-frequency trading style, and it’s not a coincidence that somewhere around 80 to 90% of them lose money. They are losing money because they are trading way too much and not being patient or disciplined enough to wait for their strategy to really come together and give them a high-probability entry signal.
Do you see the connection between the fact that most traders lose money (around 80%) and about the same amount of time the market is really not worth trading? Markets chop around a lot, and a lot of the time the price action is simply meaningless. As a price action trader, our job is to analyze the price action and have the discipline to not trade during the choppy (meaningless) price action and wait for the 20% or so market conditions that are worth trading.
This point is the most important in this whole article: I get a lot of emails from beginning and struggling traders and I know for a fact that the main thing that separates the professionals from the amateurs in this business is patience and not over-trading. Traders tend to negate their trading edge by trading during the 80% of the time when the market is not worth trading. Instead of waiting for the 20% of the time when it is worth trading, they simply trade 80% to 100% of the time with very little discretion or self-control, like a drunk guy at a casino. Don’t let this be you, remember the 80/20 rule ESPECIALLY as it pertains to trading vs. not trading. If you think you are trading about 80% of the time, you need to evaluate your trading habits and make it more in-line with trading only 20% of the time and 80% of the time should be spent observing and keeping your hands in your pockets (not trading).

80% daily chart trades, 20% other time frames

The daily chart time frame is my “weapon of choice” as far as chart time frames are concerned. I would say it’s pretty accurate that just about 80% of my trades are taken on the daily chart time frame. I won’t get into all the reasons about why focusing on the daily charts is so much better than lower time frames, but you can click the link above to find out more.
However, I would like to point out that there is also a direct connection between the fact that most traders get caught up trading lower time frame charts and most of them lose money. This fits well with the 80/20 rule in that probably only about 20% of traders really focus on higher time frame charts like the daily chart and somewhere around 20% to 10% of traders actually make consistent money. People tend to be drawn to the “play by play” action on the lower time frame charts, almost like they are mesmerized by the moving numbers and flashing colors…unfortunately, this turns into somewhat of a trading addiction for many traders, that quickly destroys their trading accounts.

80% of trading success is psychology and money management, 20% is strategy

In the article I wrote that detailed a case study of random entry and risk reward, I showed how it is possible to make money simply through the power of money management and risk reward. To be clear, I was not and am not saying that you can make a full-time living as a trader without an effective trading strategy. I am simply saying that money management and controlling your mindset is far more important than finding some “perfect, Holy-Grail” trading system that simply does not exist.
You should be focusing about 80% of your trading efforts on money management and controlling yourself / being disciplined (psychology), and about 20% on actually analyzing the charts and trading. If you do this consistently, I can guarantee you that you will see a very positive change in your trading profits, or lack thereof.
Using an effective trading method that is also easy to understand and implement will give you the mental clarity and time to focus 80% on money management and discipline whilst only needing about 20% of your mental energy for analyzing the markets and finding trades. A lot of traders never even get to this point because they are still trying to figure out how the heck to make sense of their trading system.

 Where to go from here with the 80/20 rule…

where to go nextIf you look back over your trading account history from January 1st until now, ask yourself how many of the trades you lost money on where actually valid occurrences of your trading strategy (edge) versus random gambling-type trades that you entered out of emotion or impulse. I’m willing to be that the ratio of emotional trading losses to losses that were the result of a normal statistical losing trade, is about 80/20…surprise, surprise.
The implication here is clearly that you can eliminate about 80% of your trading losses by avoiding emotional or impulsive trading. The first step to trading with an ‘80/20 mindset’ is to master a simple trading strategy like the price action strategies I teach in my trading courses. As I said earlier, if you do this it will give you the foundation you need to focus more of your time on the real “money makers” in trading, which are money management and your own mental state. Thus, the 80/20 rule in trading is best applied by combining a simple trading strategy and a strong focus on money management and psychology, the synergy of this combination is a very potent force for making money in the market.

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Credit Suisse Holds EUR/USD Short For 1.3025 & USD/JPY long For 103.10

Credit Suisse maintains a technical tactical short EUR/USD position with a stop above 1.3259, and a target at 1.3025.
"We look for further weakness to the 200-day average at 1.3145 initially. This should be allowed to hold at first, ahead of a test of the 50% retracement level at 1.3103 next, and eventually 1.3021/1.2980 – the measured target from the top and 61.8% retracement. Removal of the latter is needed to expose the broader range lows at 1.2775/55," CS outlines its bias on the pair.
Meanwhile, CS maintains a long USD/JPY position with a stop at 97.85, and a target at 103.10. CS plans to add to this long on a dip into 98.55.
"USD/JPY has surged above pivotal resistance at 98.86/99.15 – the falling trendline from the May peak and the recent high – for the completion of a large bullish “triangle” pattern. We look for this to turn the core trend bullish again, targeting 99.97 initially, ahead of 101.54/61 – the July high and 78.6% retracement of the May/June decline. This latter area should be allowed to cap at first, ahead of an eventual retest of longterm resistance at 103.10/74," CS outlines its bias on the pair.

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Outlooks & Strategies For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & AUD/USD - Barclays

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The following are the latest technical outlooks and strategies for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Barclays Capital.
EUR/USD: The market pushed below 1.3200, signalling a return to 1.3140, and then the 1.3100 area. The 200- day average is at 1.3145, and a close below this would add to bearish confidence. Intraday resistance is at 1.3260.
USD/JPY: The break above the trendline resistance zone near 98.85/90 ushers in a bid for a return to 100.00/100.90 before a pullback can occur. Bigger picture, support is at 95.80 (narrowing range lows), and our medium-term focus is the 105 area.
GBP/USD: Having come within striking distance of our 1.5420 target, we are now neutral. The range is likely between 1.5600 and 1.5425, and we would look to sell once again, closer to the range highs.
AUD/USD: A small bounce is unfolding, and we are changing our view in the short term. The risk is for a probe into the 0.9040/60 area, where we would look for topping signs. Medium term, our view remains for an overthrow of the 2013 lows near 0.8850 and a return to 0.8530.

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Global USD Liquidity Declining; What Does It Mean? - Morgan Stanley

Global USD liquidity has significantly declined, according to Morgan Stanley's calculations.
"We define global USD liquidity by taking narrow US money supply and adding currency reserves. The growth rate of this liquidity indicator has declined by a magnitude not seen since the mid-90s, when financial market were challenged by breaking correlations and a redistribution of flows out of EM back into DM," MS clarifies.
This decline in global USD liquidity can be accounted for several reasons as outlined by MS:
"First, the rebalancing global economy has reduced current account surpluses and deficits, decreasing the amount of USD being circulated throughout the global economy. Second, after years of monetary expansion, some central banks are considering removing accommodation. The most important of these is obviously the Fed, given the reserve status of the USD," MS adds.
So, what does this mean for the USD?
"When USD liquidity declines, the USD tends to rally especially against higher-risk / higher-return currencies often found in the emerging market..We expect the USD to catch up against G-10 currencies, and safe-haven currencies to especially come under pressure," MS answers.
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Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, & SP500 - SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: One more low before pausing. Even though a new low wasn’t printed yesterday the market at least closed at the lowest level since the turn. We still see the market moving down to a new low sub 1.3173, to either 1.3162, the ideal target for wave 3 or possible the theoretical target for the current hourly triangle, 1.3119. Once a new low is in place a wave four correction to 1.3237 likely to take place.

USD/JPY: Exited the bull triangle. Yesterday the market broke and closed outside the bull triangle created since the May peak. The development is very positive and more gains should be made going forward. Near term targets should be 100.6 (a 161.8 Fibo projection point) and 101.05/101.54 (July top area). Initial support is located around 99.10.

AUD/USD: Monitoring the channel ceiling. With a possible higher low printed a couple of days ago the setup for a possible more profound upside reaction is in place. The market must however clear the April falling top line and the 55d ma band to make a larger correction getting legs. Caution urged should the market turn down from the prior reaction high, 0.9070, as such a development hinting of underlying weakness (and new trend lows).

S&P 500: Still digesting the Aug decline. With a completed five wave pattern down in August the market is currently seen consolidating/correcting the decline. As such we should basically see the market spending time ranging but also a potential for a short term continued rise toward possible the high 1660’s, the peak of wave 4. Last week’s bearish candle and the Aug dark cloud cover candle will thereafter guide the market lower.

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